Pakistan & India Reach a Tipping Point

The Pahalgam attack could’ve lead to nuclear winter. India's potential fourth war with Pakistan in 78 years threatened 1 billion lives, with a 1.2% GDP crash in Pakistan.

Data Visualization & Marketing Partner: Brand Nib

The fragile peace between India and Pakistan once again unraveled, plunging the region into its most volatile crisis since the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot standoff. Triggered by a deadly terrorist attack on April 22 in Pahalgam, the recent conflict resulted in the unbearable loss of lives on both sides which has deepened public grief and outrage, while the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India and the resulting reduction in Chenab River flows have added another layer of urgency to the crisis. Early economic indicators painted a grim picture: Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast has already dropped by 1.2 percentage points, and bilateral trade, which had shown tentative signs of recovery, abruptly stalled. These growing tensions could also take an environmental toll. Intensified military activity is inflating the region’s carbon footprint, echoing the kind of ecological devastation witnessed in Gaza and Ukraine, where war has not only shattered communities but also poisoned farmlands, choked air quality, and left lasting scars on civilian infrastructure. As the region teeters on the edge, this conflict is a stark reminder of how the cost of war, measured in lives, economic stability, and environmental harm, is never borne equally, and rarely fades quickly.

Since 1947, India and Pakistan have fought four wars, each leaving behind deep scars: lives lost, economies strained, and hopes for peace pushed further away. The 1971 war alone cost Pakistan over $3.5 billion (adjusted for today), the loss of 90,000 soldiers, and the breakup of the country. More recently, the 2019 Balakot strikes triggered airspace closures and trade suspensions, hurting both countries, especially Pakistan’s smaller economy.

But the war doesn’t ‘just’ cost money, it poisons the land and air. Cross-border operations like Operation Sindoor and Bunyan un Marsoos burn through fuel, destroy infrastructure, and release tons of carbon. Globally, military activity emits between 1,600 and 3,500 MtCO₂e every year, more than the entire aviation industry or 5.5% of the global GHG emissions. For nuclear-armed nations like India and Pakistan, the stakes are even higher. A limited nuclear exchange could spark fires, darken skies, collapse agriculture, and cause a famine affecting over a billion people. We’ve seen in Gaza and Ukraine how war wrecks water, soil, and public health for generations. Pakistan, which is more reliant on farming and has fewer economic safety nets, stands to suffer more. And Kashmir, caught in the middle, continues to carry the heaviest weight, its people displaced, its future uncertain. In this conflict, the costs aren’t equal. And when nukes are in the picture, the damage could go far beyond the region, to all of us.

With a ceasefire now in place, patriotism remains vital, but de-escalation is equally crucial. While India holds firm, Pakistan has a unique chance to set a historic precedent by championing peace through diplomacy and dialogue on the global stage.

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GRAPHICS

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Israel has dropped 100,000 tons of explosives on the Gaza Strip since launching its genocidal campaign 19 months ago, killing or leaving missing over 62,000 Palestinians and committing more than 12,000 massacres, so far.

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Pakistan’s wholesale and retail trade (WRT) sector plays a vital role in the economy, contributing 17.1% to real GDP, yet it accounts for just 2.25% of direct taxes, creating a sharp tax-GDP gap of -15.17%. This underrepresentation stems from the sector’s high informality and limited integration into formal tax systems.

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Agriculture lies at the heart of Pakistan’s economy, directly and indirectly supporting 46% of economic activity and nearly half of the manufacturing sector. Yet its contribution to national tax revenue is disproportionately low, just around 7%, with only 2.4% of its value-added being effectively taxed. Despite receiving substantial tax expenditures, the sector remains under-taxed and largely informal. While it's fair that 89% of small farmers (owning less than 12.5 acres) are exempt from land tax, the wealthiest 11%, who control over 27 million acres, contribute very little, even though they can pay.

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Data Visualization & Marketing Partner: Brand Nib

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